Bloomberg analysis finds roughly 98% loss rate for Kalshi and Polymarket longshot contracts
By The Weekly Edge desk · · Updated
Summary
A Bloomberg analysis found that low-probability contracts traded on Kalshi and Polymarket failed roughly 98% of the time, reported by Online Poker Report on 16 October 2026. The report described traders pursuing potential returns of 1,000% or more and treating purchases as entertainment spending.
Why it matters
The findings bear on state challenges to Kalshi and Polymarket's position that their contracts fall exclusively under CFTC jurisdiction.